Total QBR – This is the ultimate number we are finding! The QBR is the one number that combines the other formulas to give us our best look at efficiency. For each QB we are seeing their average air yards per completion and their completion percentage stacked up against the league averages in both categories, plus their TD rating, and then taking that total number of the two and subtracting the INT Score and Sack Score to find the total QBR. So the best QBs will have completed passes near or above the league’s average air distance at a completion percentage higher than the league’s average, while also throwing a high number of TDs compared to their number of pass attempts and a low number of INTs compared to their number of pass attempts while also not taking many sacks.
n = (A+B) – (C+D) , where A is the Effective Completion Rating, B is the TD Rating, C is the INT score, and D is the Sack Score.
This is scaled 0-100 just like the real NFL’s 0-100 QBR. The NFL’s model is aimed to make a grade of 45-55 be an average NFL starter and 70-80 be a pro bowl/All-Pro season. Anything above 90 is almost unheard of and doesn’t happen every season. I worked tirelessly on this formula for it to create the same scale and I think I accomplished as close to that as I could based on what we know about each user and can see from the plain stats while also unearthing some odd outliers of stats (Like Matigy having the 2nd lowest average air yards per completion at 5.9yds or Silent averaging over 13 yards per completion while the rest of the league is below 10).
- Below 30 = bad
- 31-45 = below average PML Starter
- 46-60 = average to above-average PML Starter
- 61-70 = very good PML starter
- 70-90 = top tier PML QB, the league’s best
- 91+ = Bo Nix
Effective Completion Rating – This is the most complex analytical stat category. It’s looking at the average air yard distance per completion of the QB and their total completion percentage and weighs that against the league’s average completion percentage and 2/3 of the league’s average air yard completion distance.
So, for each QB I took his average air yards per completion and multiplied that by his completion percentage, then divided that total number by the league’s average completion percentage, then took that number and multiplied it by 6 (2/3 of PML’s average air yards per comp which is 9).
n = [(A*B)/C]6 , if A is the QBs average air yards per comp, B is the QBs comp %, and C is the league’s average comp % TD Rating – This formula is a little easier to look at and all it’s looking at is the Passing TD rate of the QB and multiplying that by 2.7. The 2.7 is to scale the TDs proportionately against INTs which you will see be multiplied by 3.5. Basically, it’s saying that an “average” season performance in PML would be around 30 passing TDs and 22 INTs. This differs from the real NFL where average would be seen as around 22 Passing TDs and 10 INTs. We are using the inverse of the average ratio to multiply the TDs and INTs to balance the two grades against each other. So, a QB that throws 35 TDs and 27 INTs will have their TD Rating and INT Score cancel each other out to total 0 .
n = (A/B)2.7*100 , where A is the QB’s passing TDs and B is the QBs total attempts. this gives us a percentage fraction which is why I multiplied that by 100 at the end to get a regular number. INT Rating – This is basically the same at the TD score but for INTs. We are finding the INT rate of the QB and multiplying that by 3.5
n = (A/B)3.5*100 , where A is the QBs INTs and B is the QBs total pass attempts. Sack Score – This is the easiest grade to look at, it is just finding the QB’s sack rate and multiplying it by 100 to turn it from a percentage fraction into a whole number.
n = (A/B)100 , where A is the total number of sacks taken by the QB and B is their total pass attempts. If you scale this against the INTs as a negative play, INTs are 3.5 times worse than a sack.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson
QBR = 22.96 (Bad)
Average Air Yards Per Completion = 7.59
Effective Completion Rating = 41.27
TD Rating = 21.49
INT Score = 31.34
Sack Score = 8.46
Browns
Daniel Jones
QBR = 74.89 (Top Tier PML QB)
Average Air Yards Per Completion = 8.99
Effective Completion Rating = 59.66
TD Rating = 32.20
INT Score = 12.84
Sack Score = 4.13
Browns
Cam Jenkins
QBR = 66.55 (Very Good PML Starter)
Average Air Yards Per Completion = 8.99
Effective Completion Rating = 56.32
TD Rating = 24.55
INT Score = 12.24
Sack Score = 2.10
Bengals
Joe Burrow (Very Good PML Starter)
QBR = 66.31
Average Air Yards Per Completion = 13.82
Effective Completion Rating = 82.85
TD Rating = 26.36
INT Score = 35.21
Sack Score = 7.69
Steelers
Zach Wilson
QBR = 45.60 (Average to Above Average PML Starter)
Average Air Yards Per Completion = 10.73
Effective Completion Rating = 55.39
TD Rating = 21.43
INT Score = 22.22
Sack Score = 8.99
