I did this once last cycle and it was great, but it really can only be done once a season, maybe twice. I’m going to try to do this every season moving forward around the midseason point. This gives us a good track record and a solid amount of data to look at, while leaving enough time in the season for teams to prove themselves, one way or the other. AKA this is all speculation.
Love is hard, but winning a PML Super Bowl is harder. Today we’re gonna swipe right or swipe left on the top teams in PML and find out if they’re a true contender or an ugly pretender. Just a friendly reminder, swipe right means they’re a contender, and swipe left means they’re a pretender. Every team 5-3 or better was considered, sorry if you didn’t make the cut. In my mind, contender status is reaching the conference championship, PML’s final four. While the NFC is stronger than the AFC, any team can win once we reach the final four.
Jets (5-3)
Overall Net: +12
Played strength of schedule: 0.345
39 points per game (9th)
361.8 pass yards per game (5th)
102.8 rush yards per game (23rd)
38 points allowed per game (25th)
326.8 pass yards allowed per game (28th)
143.5 rush yards allowed per game (27th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.448
Best Win: Week 2, 48-20 over Buffalo Bills
Worst Loss: Week 3, 42-63 behind Cleveland Browns
Verdict: Swipe Left. Despite their explosive passing offense, the Jets’ defensive struggles are glaring, and their inability to stop both the pass and the run leaves them vulnerable. They’ve dropped two of their last three games, all against teams with losing records, signaling a downward trend. While their soft remaining schedule and weak division might secure them a home playoff game, they’ll need to prove they can handle tougher competition to change the narrative.
Chiefs (7-2)
Overall Net: +66
Played strength of schedule: 0.487
42 points per game (6th)
362 pass yards per game (4th)
125 rush yards per game (14th)
35 points allowed per game (16th)
322.3 pass yards allowed per game (27th)
120.1 rush yards allowed per game (16th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.439
Best Win: Week 1, 52-42 over Minnesota Vikings
Worst Loss: Week 2, 25-45 behind Washington Commanders
Verdict: Swipe Right. The Chiefs are once again proving their mettle as a top AFC team, with a dynamic offense that has thrived even without Patrick Mahomes at times. Their defensive inconsistencies are a concern, but they’ve shown resilience and the ability to win big games. As last season’s AFC champions, they remain a top contender with plenty of firepower to make another deep playoff run.
Chargers (6-3)
Overall Net: +121
Played strength of schedule: 0.354
42 points per game (7th)
329.7 pass yards per game (8th)
138.2 rush yards per game (11th)
29 points allowed per game (5th)
317.2 pass yards allowed per game (25th)
93.4 rush yards allowed per game (3rd)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.508
Best Win: Week 6, 45-27 over Las Vegas Raiders
Worst Loss: Week 5, 38-48 behind Tennesee Titans
Verdict: Swipe Left. While the Chargers boast an impressive point differential and a balanced offense, their defensive lapses, particularly against the pass, raise concerns. Losses to sub-.500 teams and a rising turnover count suggest a lack of consistency that could cost them in high-pressure games. They may make the playoffs in a weak AFC, but they need to shore up their defense and prove they can consistently beat quality teams.
Raiders (5-3)
Overall Net: +82
Played strength of schedule: 0.507
44 points per game (4th)
305.6 pass yards per game (13th)
131.3 rush yards per game (13th)
34 points allowed per game (12th)
299.8 pass yards allowed per game (21st)
149.6 rush yards allowed per game (29th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.470
Best Win: Week 8, 69-17 over Cincinnati Bengals
Worst Loss: Week 6, 27-45 behind Los Angeles Chargers
Verdict: Swipe Right. The Raiders have demonstrated that their explosive offense can keep them competitive against top teams, even with a defense that bends but doesn’t break. They’ve shown grit in close games and have convincingly beaten weaker opponents, which is crucial in a tight AFC race. Their challenging schedule will test them, but their ability to compete at a high level makes them legitimate contenders.
Commanders (7-1)
Overall Net: +64
Played strength of schedule: 0.475
33 points per game (19th)
211.8 pass yards per game (32nd)
164.6 rush yards per game (3rd)
25 points allowed per game (3rd)
259.9 pass yards allowed per game (6th)
118.1 rush yards allowed per game (14th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.547
Best Win: Week 2, 45-25 over Kansas City Chiefs
Worst Loss: Week 4, 20-45 behind Los Angeles Rams
Verdict: Swipe Right. The Commanders have established themselves as a defensive powerhouse, complemented by a lethal rushing attack that makes them a nightmare matchup for opponents. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has minimized mistakes, and the team has handled a tough schedule with poise. With one of the league’s top defenses and a strong ground game, they’re well-equipped for a deep playoff run.
Vikings (8-1)
Overall Net: +60
Played strength of schedule: 0.487
41 points per game (8th)
375.2 pass yards per game (2nd)
95.4 rush yards per game (26th)
35 points allowed per game (18th)
347.2 pass yards allowed per game (31st)
111.8 rush yards allowed per game (12th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.482
Best Win: Week 9, 56-35 over Seattle Seahawks
Worst Loss: Week 1, 42-52 behind Kansas City Chiefs
Verdict: Swipe Right. The Vikings’ high-powered passing offense has carried them to the NFC’s top record, proving they can outscore almost anyone. However, their defense’s struggles and close calls against mediocre teams are red flags. Despite these concerns, they remain the reigning NFC champions, and their undefeated conference record solidifies their status as strong contenders.
Bears (7-1)
Overall Net: +144
Played strength of schedule: 0.328
38 points per game (10th)
218.3 pass yards per game (31st)
171.5 rush yards per game (1st)
20 points allowed per game (1st)
204.5 pass yards allowed per game (1st)
128.8 rush yards allowed per game (20th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.537
Best Win: Week 4, 41-22 over Green Bay Packers
Worst Loss: Week 7, 28-34 behind Philadelphia Eagles
Verdict: Swipe Left. The Bears’ league-best defense and dominant rushing attack have been impressive, but their schedule has been soft, and they’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record. While their potential is undeniable, they need to prove they can sustain success against tougher opponents. The second half of their schedule will reveal whether they’re for real or just a product of their environment.
Buccaneers (6-2)
Overall Net: +104
Played strength of schedule: 0.542
46 points per game (2nd)
275.0 pass yards per game (19th)
149.3 rush yards per game (5th)
33 points allowed per game (11th)
319.5 pass yards allowed per game (26th)
105.1 rush yards allowed per game (9th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.455
Best Win: Week 5, 35-20 over Carolina Panthers
Worst Loss: Week 8, 41-48 behind San Francisco 49ers
Verdict: Swipe Right. With a well-rounded offense and a defense that excels in high-leverage situations, the Buccaneers have shown they can compete with the league’s best. Their two losses have come in tight games against other contenders, which speaks to their competitiveness. As one of the most balanced teams in the NFC, they have all the tools to make a serious playoff push.
Cardinals (8-1)
Overall Net: +105
Played strength of schedule: 0.392
34 points per game (18th)
219.0 pass yards per game (30th)
141.8 rush yards per game (8th)
22 points allowed per game (2nd)
240.7 pass yards allowed per game (2nd)
86.6 rush yards allowed per game (1st)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.518
Best Win: Week 7, 40-12 over San Francisco 49ers
Worst Loss: Week 8, 14-28 behind Los Angeles Rams
Verdict: Swipe Right. The Cardinals’ defense has been exceptional, leading the league in both pass and rush defense, and they’ve consistently dominated their opponents. Kyler Murray’s dual-threat ability has elevated their offense, making him a legitimate MVP candidate. Though their schedule has been relatively easy, their overall performance suggests they can contend with any team in the league.
Seahawks (6-2)
Overall Net: +99
Played strength of schedule: 0.485
48 points per game (1st)
358.8 pass yards per game (6th)
131.9 rush yards per game (12th)
35 points allowed per game (17th)
292.6 pass yards allowed per game (17th)
123.6 rush yards allowed per game (19th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.545
Best Win: Week 2, 47-33 over San Francisco 49ers
Worst Loss: Week 9, 35-56 behind Minnesota Vikings
Verdict: Swipe Left. The Seahawks’ offense, led by Kenneth Walker, has been electric, but their defense’s mediocrity and reliance on one playmaker make them fragile. Their blowout loss to the Vikings exposed their vulnerabilities against top-tier teams. While their offensive firepower is undeniable, their lack of balance and recent struggles against strong opponents cast doubt on their contender status.
49ers (5-3)
Overall Net: +2
Played strength of schedule: 0.500
33 points per game (21st)
303.8 pass yards per game (14th)
115.3 rush yards per game (19th)
33 points allowed per game (10th)
291.8 pass yards allowed per game (15th)
105.3 rush yards allowed per game (10th)
Remaining strength of schedule: 0.522
Best Win: Week 8, 48-41 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Worst Loss: Week 7, 12-40 behind Arizona Cardinals
Verdict: Swipe Left. The 49ers have shown flashes of potential but lack a defining strength to set them apart from the NFC’s elite. Their lone impressive win came in Week 8, but they’ve been outclassed in other big matchups, particularly against the Cardinals. While they’ve been competitive, their middling performances suggest they’re not ready to make a serious postseason impact.
