The draft landscape has shifted dramatically as front offices reshuffle their boards following private workouts and pro days. The early favorites are no longer locks, and the quarterback class has made a strong late surge. The latest intel has shaken up the entire top five, with several teams pivoting toward long-term franchise cornerstones rather than pure athletic upside.
Let’s dive into the updated Top 5 mock draft, with detailed breakdowns of each prospect — how they fit their new franchises, and what’s changed from the previous projections.
1. Kansas City Chiefs — Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
(Previous Pick: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn)
The Chiefs make a shocking pivot at the top, moving away from a defensive line selection and toward perhaps the most complete defensive back prospect in years. Caleb Downs is a do-it-all safety who embodies leadership, intelligence, and elite instincts.
Downs, originally from Alabama before transferring to Ohio State, has been a star since the day he arrived on campus. His ability to diagnose plays, communicate coverages, and consistently make the right read separates him from nearly every other defensive back in this class. He’s built sturdy at 6’0”, 205 pounds, with the range to patrol deep zones and the physicality to play in the box.
What makes Downs worthy of the No. 1 pick isn’t just his tape — it’s his reliability. He’s the type of defensive centerpiece who raises the level of everyone around him. His football IQ and tackling efficiency (over 100 tackles in his freshman season at Alabama) make him an immediate defensive captain.
Impact on the Franchise:
Kansas City’s defense, while talented, has lacked a true field general in the secondary since Tyrann Mathieu’s prime years. Downs fills that void instantly. He can quarterback the defense, cover tight ends, and take on elite slot receivers — all while providing a stabilizing presence for a young secondary. This is a rare “culture and production” pick rolled into one.
NFL Comparison: Minkah Fitzpatrick / Antoine Winfield Jr.
2. Carolina Panthers — LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
(Previous Pick: LaNorris Sellers — unchanged)
For Carolina, this pick remains steady — and for good reason. LaNorris Sellers has been climbing draft boards since the Senior Bowl and looks like a prototype for today’s dual-threat offenses.
At 6’3” and 230 pounds, Sellers brings a cannon for an arm and legit athleticism that makes him a nightmare on designed quarterback runs. His film at South Carolina shows flashes of elite-level upside: tight-window throws, off-platform creativity, and the ability to extend plays with his legs.
There are still questions about consistency — footwork, anticipation, and timing — but in terms of raw talent, Sellers is arguably the most physically gifted passer in the class. He’s a project in some ways, but one worth betting on.
Impact on the Franchise:
Carolina desperately needs stability under center. Sellers gives them a long-term option who can grow into a franchise QB while revitalizing an offense that has struggled to find an identity. His athletic profile also pairs well with Carolina’s developing offensive line and a strong run game — a setup similar to what Baltimore built for Lamar Jackson early in his career.
NFL Comparison: Anthony Richardson / Josh Allen (raw traits)
3. New Orleans Saints — Arch Manning, QB, Texas
(Previous Pick: Arch Manning — unchanged)
The Saints stay the course with their selection and lock in the most polished quarterback prospect in this class. Arch Manning, the Texas standout and football royalty, offers exactly what New Orleans needs — composure, pedigree, and elite mental processing.
At Texas, Manning’s growth was evident. He’s accurate at all levels of the field, shows excellent pocket awareness, and has a quick release that allows him to carve up zone coverage. While not the most dynamic athlete, his command of the offense and leadership qualities make him a natural franchise quarterback.
Manning’s mechanics and timing already look pro-ready, and his ability to read defenses pre-snap is advanced beyond his years. He projects as the safest quarterback in this draft class — and the one most likely to be ready on day one.
Impact on the Franchise:
New Orleans has spent the last several seasons searching for long-term stability at quarterback. With Manning, they finally get a foundational piece who can run a modern West Coast system with surgical precision. Expect the Saints’ offense to revolve around his quick reads and timing routes, giving their receiving corps renewed life.
NFL Comparison: Justin Herbert / Matt Ryan (prime years)
4. Tennessee Titans — Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
(Previous Pick: Trinidad Chambliss — unchanged)
Trinidad Chambliss continues to rise after an eye-popping combine performance where he reportedly clocked a 4.40-second 40-yard dash — one of the fastest ever for a quarterback. That kind of athleticism, paired with a powerful arm, makes him one of the most intriguing dual-threat passers in years.
At Ole Miss, Chambliss showcased a rare blend of physical tools and leadership. His frame (6’3”, 225 lbs) and running ability give defenses headaches, and his throwing mechanics have improved dramatically year over year. He’s no longer just a “runner who can throw” — he’s a legitimate dual-threat quarterback with pocket poise and an improving feel for anticipation throws.
Impact on the Franchise:
The Titans need a face of the franchise, and Chambliss fits that role perfectly. His combination of speed and arm strength gives Tennessee the modern offensive identity it’s been lacking. Pairing him with a dominant run game and play-action-heavy scheme will unlock explosive potential.
Chambliss can extend drives, attack all three levels of the defense, and immediately elevate everyone around him — from receivers to linemen.
NFL Comparison: Jalen Hurts / Lamar Jackson
5. Miami Dolphins — Drew Allar, QB, Penn State
(Previous Pick: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU)
The Dolphins make one of the boldest moves of the draft, shifting away from defense and selecting Penn State quarterback Drew Allar — a big-bodied passer with exceptional arm strength and an underrated football IQ.
At 6’5” and 240 pounds, Allar looks the part of an NFL quarterback. His velocity on throws allows him to attack tight windows, and his mechanics are surprisingly compact for his size. Allar has shown steady growth in decision-making, particularly in his ability to read safeties and adjust mid-play.
While he isn’t as flashy athletically as Sellers or Chambliss, his pocket passing and ability to operate from structure make him a classic franchise quarterback candidate. Scouts love his calm demeanor and leadership presence — something Miami could use as they transition toward a post–Tua Tagovailoa era.
Impact on the Franchise:
For Miami, this is about long-term stability. With an explosive roster built around speed, they need a quarterback who can distribute the ball accurately and keep drives alive through timing and precision. Allar gives them that steady hand — a modern version of the classic strong-armed pocket passer who can thrive in a vertical passing attack.
His fit with the Dolphins’ offensive weapons could be seamless: imagine his arm strength pushing the ball downfield to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If he develops chemistry quickly, Miami’s offense could become nearly unstoppable.
NFL Comparison: Justin Herbert
