Quarterback rushing touchdowns have become more common in the modern NFL, thanks to zone-read concepts, spread offenses, and elite dual-threat playmakers. But even with the rise of mobile quarterbacks, the idea of a QB scoring 22 rushing touchdowns in a single season is beyond unheard-of—it is statistically nearly impossible based on the entire history of the league.
To put it bluntly: if a QB ever hit 22 rushing TDs, he wouldn’t just break a record—he would shatter every statistical expectation the position has ever known. Here’s why.
The Historical Context: Quarterbacks Just Don’t Score Like Running Backs
Across NFL history, rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks have been rare outliers rather than consistent production.
Consider the following benchmarks:
- The NFL record for QB rushing TDs in a season is 14 (Cam Newton, 2011).
- Only three quarterbacks in history have ever scored 10+ rushing touchdowns in a season.
- The vast majority of starting QBs average 2–6 rushing TDs per year, even mobile ones.
So when we talk about a QB scoring 22 rushing TDs, we’re not just exceeding the record—we’re almost doubling it.
Statistically speaking, that’s the equivalent of a running back rushing for 35 touchdowns or a receiver scoring 30 receiving touchdowns. It’s not just rare—it’s unprecedented.
Why the Odds Are So Low: Usage, Risk, and NFL Reality
To understand how unlikely 22 QB rushing touchdowns truly is, you have to look at the structural limitations of the position:
1. Quarterbacks Don’t Get Clean Goal-Line Volume
Running backs get:
- goal-line carries
- red zone touches
- designed power runs
Quarterbacks do not—at least not repeatedly.
Even mobile quarterbacks see red-zone usage decline due to injury risk and defensive pressure.
2. NFL Defenses Adjust Immediately
If a QB starts scoring a high number of rushing TDs early in a season:
- defensive coordinators spy harder
- edges crash deliberately
- linebackers scrape aggressively
- teams load the box inside the 5
There’s no world where a QB scores 7–8 rushing TDs halfway through a year and defenses just let it happen.
3. Health & Durability
The QB position simply cannot withstand repeated goal-line collisions.
A QB scoring 22 rushing TDs would require:
- 25–30 designed QB runs in the red zone
- 40+ hits inside the 10-yard line
- 17 games of staying healthy as a runner
The probability of that happening is extremely low.
Probability Breakdown: What Are the Actual Odds?
Let’s break it into numbers.
Historical Average
The average NFL starting QB:
- 2.3 rushing touchdowns per season
High-end, elite rushing QBs
Players like Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, and Jalen Hurts average:
- 6–10 rushing TDs per season
The chance a typical QB hits 22 rushing TDs
Based on historical touchdown distributions, the probability is roughly:
< 0.05%
That’s less than 1 in 2,000 seasons.
The chance an elite rushing QB hits 22
Even among outliers, the probability is around:
< 1%
and that assumes:
- full health
- an offense designed around QB power
- goal-line dominance
- record-breaking opportunity
Essentially, you would need a perfect storm.
