What We Predicted vs. What Actually Happened: A Breakdown of the 2026 PCFB Playoff

What We Predicted vs. What Actually Happened: A Breakdown of the 2026 PCFB Playoff

The 2026 Premier College Football League (PCFB) Playoff delivered drama, upsets, blowouts, and a championship game that nobody—including my earlier prediction—saw coming. With the bracket now complete and Nebraska crowned champion, it’s time to compare the predicted path with the real results.

Below is a detailed look at where the predictions hit, where they swung and missed, and how Nebraska emerged as the surprise powerhouse of the postseason.

FIRST ROUND: Early Chaos We Didn’t See Coming

✔ 

Correct Prediction: Notre Dame beats Florida

I projected Notre Dame’s balanced offense to edge the Gators—and that aligned perfectly with reality.

Actual result: Notre Dame 25, Florida 7.

✔ 

Correct Prediction: Tennessee beats Tulane

The Volunteers had the matchup advantage, and it showed.

Actual result: Tennessee 45, Tulane 31.

✔ 

Correct Prediction: UCLA beats Texas A&M

UCLA’s efficiency and quarterback play proved decisive.

Actual result: UCLA 34, Texas A&M 14.

❌ 

Missed Prediction: Penn State vs. Arizona State

I predicted Penn State, but Arizona State pulled off the upset of the round.

Actual result: Arizona State 24, Penn State 23.

A one-point thriller—and the first major break from expectations.

QUARTERFINALS: The Turning Point

❌ 

Wake Forest vs. Arizona State

Predicted: Wake Forest comfortably advancing.

Actual: Wake Forest survived, but barely—38–34.

The Sun Devils nearly shocked the nation twice.

✔ 

Texas vs. Notre Dame

Texas was expected to overpower Notre Dame—and they did.

Actual result: Texas 42, Notre Dame 28.

Jarred Moore and the Longhorn offense looked unstoppable.

❌ 

Nebraska vs. UCLA

Predicted: Nebraska wins in a grinding, physical game.

Actual result: Nebraska 31, UCLA 21.

Correct winner, correct style, correct margin—my best call of the entire bracket.

❌ 

Clemson vs. Tennessee

Predicted: Clemson wins a methodical contest.

Actual: Clemson survived—but 51–48 in an absolute track meet.

Tennessee’s offense gave Clemson all it could handle.

SEMIFINALS: Where the Prediction Diverged Completely

❌ 

Wake Forest vs. Texas

Predicted: Texas wins 41–27.

Actual: Texas won 43–42 in a thriller.

Wake Forest nearly authored the upset of the decade. Instead, Texas escaped by one point in the most dramatic game of the postseason.

The prediction was correct in winner but wildly wrong in game script—this was no comfortable Texas win.

❌ 

Nebraska vs. Clemson

Predicted: Clemson wins a tight, physical contest (28–23).

Actual: Nebraska stunned Clemson 52–35.

This was the biggest divergence from prediction:

• Nebraska’s offense exploded.
• Clemson’s defense was overwhelmed.
• The Huskers looked like the best team in the nation.

At this point, the playoff belonged to Nebraska.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: The Exact Opposite of My Prediction

❌ 

Predicted Final:

 Texas defeats Clemson

⭐ 

Actual Final:

 Nebraska defeats Texas, 31–28

Texas entered undefeated. Nebraska entered battle-tested and red-hot.

The game was tight, methodical, and physical—the style Nebraska excels in.

What I got wrong:

• I underestimated Nebraska’s offensive versatility.
• I overestimated Texas’s ability to impose tempo on an elite defensive front.
• I didn’t account for Nebraska peaking at exactly the right time.

What actually happened:

Nebraska used disciplined defense, clock control, and clutch quarterback play to dethrone the undefeated Longhorns and claim the national title.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE REAL BRACKET

1. Nebraska was built for postseason football

Their balance, discipline, and ability to win high-scoring or low-scoring games made them the most complete playoff team.

2. Texas was mortal—just barely

The Longhorns needed two one-score wins to reach the final before falling in another one. Their margin for error evaporated against Nebraska.

3. Wake Forest was far better than I projected

They nearly defeated Texas in the semifinal—far exceeding expectations.

4. Clemson ran out of answers defensively

Allowing 48 points to Tennessee, then 52 to Nebraska exposed a fatal flaw.

5. The expanded playoff works

Close games. Upsets. Heartbreak. Chaos.

This bracket provided everything fans hoped for.

FINAL VERDICT: Prediction Scorecard

Round	Prediction Accuracy
First Round	3 of 4 correct
Quarterfinals	3 of 4 correct (winners only)
Semifinals	1 of 2 correct (Texas)
Championship	Wrong winner, wrong finalist (Clemson)