After the chaos and surprises of the top half of Round 1, picks 17–32 brought even more curveballs. Several players projected earlier slid, others rose sharply, and team philosophies once again reshaped the board. Below is a full breakdown of the mocked selections versus the actual picks, along with analysis on what teams got right — and where draft night took an unexpected turn.
1.17 Denver Broncos
Mock: Jack Endries, TE, Texas
Actual: Eli Bowen, CB, Texas ❌
Denver pivoted to the secondary, grabbing a polished and technically sound corner in Eli Bowen. With offenses spreading the field, the Broncos clearly prioritized coverage ability over offensive versatility. Bowen’s footwork and recovery speed made him a safer immediate contributor than a tight end project.
1.18 Philadelphia Eagles
Mock: Caden Durham, RB, LSU
Actual: Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas ❌
Philadelphia leaned into explosiveness. Ryan Wingo’s vertical speed and separation ability give the Eagles another dangerous weapon on the outside. While running back was a projected need, the Eagles instead chose to stress defenses horizontally and vertically through the air.
1.19 New Orleans Saints
Mock: Jordan Anthony, WR, Arkansas
Actual: Jakobi Lane, WR ❌
The Saints stayed at wide receiver but chose a different flavor. Jakobi Lane offers more size and physicality compared to Anthony’s pure speed. This pick suggests New Orleans valued contested-catch ability and route strength over straight-line explosiveness.
1.20 Las Vegas Raiders (from Jets)
Mock: Drayk Bowen, MLB, Notre Dame
Actual: Whit Weeks, LB ❌
Las Vegas still addressed linebacker, but opted for Whit Weeks instead. Weeks’ athleticism and range stood out, giving the Raiders a more modern second-level defender. While Bowen brought leadership, Weeks offered upside and sideline-to-sideline speed.
1.21 Chicago Bears
Mock: Colin Simmons, EDGE, Auburn
Actual: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State ❌
Chicago shocked many by passing on pass rush help. Carnell Tate’s polished route running and reliability made him a strong complement to the Bears’ developing offense. This pick signals a continued commitment to surrounding their quarterback with dependable weapons.
1.22 Atlanta Falcons (from Giants)
Mock: Jermaine Matthews, CB, Ohio State
Actual: Bear Alexander, DT ❌
Atlanta went big and physical. Bear Alexander gives the Falcons interior disruption and run-stopping power, reinforcing a defensive front that wants to control the trenches. The Falcons chose brute force over finesse in the secondary.
1.23 Baltimore Ravens
Mock: Bryant Wesco, WR, Clemson
Actual: Caden Durham, RB, LSU ❌
Baltimore stayed true to its offensive identity. Caden Durham’s burst and vision make him an ideal fit for a run-heavy scheme that thrives on play-action. Durham slipping this far made him tremendous value for a team built around ground control.
1.24 Indianapolis Colts
Mock: AJ Harris, CB, Penn State
Actual: Jaden Greenhouse, WR ❌
The Colts added another offensive weapon instead of secondary help. Jaden Greenhouse’s versatility and athleticism give Indianapolis more flexibility in personnel groupings and formations, helping keep defenses honest.
1.25 Seattle Seahawks
Mock: Billy Schrauth, G, Notre Dame
Actual: TJ Parker, EDGE, Clemson ❌
Seattle grabbed a player many expected to go much earlier. TJ Parker’s power and edge-setting ability made him too good to pass up. This was a value-driven pick that strengthened the Seahawks’ defensive identity.
1.26 Los Angeles Chargers
Mock: Eli Bowen, CB, Texas
Actual: KJ Bolden, S ❌
The Chargers went safety instead of corner, adding KJ Bolden’s range and instincts to the back end. Bolden’s versatility allows him to play deep or in the box, making him an ideal chess piece in modern defensive schemes.
1.27 Cleveland Browns
Mock: Boo Carter, CB, Tennessee
Actual: Tobias Merriweather, WR ❌
Cleveland addressed offensive firepower instead of secondary depth. Merriweather’s size and catch radius provide a red-zone and possession target, helping balance an offense that wanted more physicality on the perimeter.
1.28 Dallas Cowboys
Mock: Malik Murphy, QB, Texas
Actual: Nate Johnson, QB, Utah ❌
Dallas stayed at quarterback but chose athleticism over raw arm strength. Nate Johnson’s elite speed and dual-threat ability add a new dynamic to the position. This pick suggests the Cowboys are intrigued by mobility and scheme flexibility.
1.29 Pittsburgh Steelers
Mock: Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State
Actual: Luke Haisz, TE, Ole Miss ❌
Pittsburgh zigged away from quarterback and instead landed one of the more complete tight ends in the class. Luke Haisz’s hands, strength, and athleticism make him a perfect fit for a physical offense that values versatility and reliability.
1.30 Washington Commanders
Mock: Gavin Sawchuck, RB, Florida State
Actual: Malik Hartford, DB ❌
Washington reinforced the secondary with Malik Hartford, emphasizing coverage and defensive flexibility. Hartford’s instincts and ball skills give the Commanders a piece they can move around depending on matchups.
1.31 Las Vegas Raiders
Mock: Taylor Tatum, RB, Texas A&M
Actual: Jason Kilgore, EDGE ❌
Instead of offense, the Raiders doubled down on the defensive front. Jason Kilgore’s motor and physicality give Las Vegas another rotational edge rusher, reinforcing their commitment to controlling the line of scrimmage.
1.32 Las Vegas Raiders (from Packers)
Mock: Logan Fano, EDGE, Texas
Actual: Jordan Seaton, OT, Florida ❌
The Raiders closed the first round by investing in protection. Jordan Seaton’s elite athletic traits and long-term upside made him a strong value pick at the end of Round 1. This selection balanced out an otherwise defense-heavy draft for Las Vegas.
Final Takeaway
Unlike the top half of the draft, picks 17–32 were defined by unpredictability. Value slides, scheme fits, and positional runs reshaped the board. Several players mocked earlier — Caden Durham, TJ Parker, Jordan Seaton — became steals late in the round, while teams consistently prioritized identity over consensus.
If the first half of Round 1 was about star power, the back half was about roster construction, patience, and long-term vision — and that’s where championships are often built.
