Using analytics, stats, and season history to predict the week 18 matchups. This is a test to see if my system will be somewhat accurate and I can adjust it for next season. The model can help the league beat the sportsbook.
Buccaneers 35 Panthers 20
Best Bet: Bucs ML (-985), it may be crazy to say but just combine this ML into a parlay and stay away from the straight bet, 14.5 is a very good spread and I can see it going either way.
Browns 31 Bengals 27
Best Bet: Bengals +6 (-100), I think the Bengals could even pull off the upset with the Browns missing Chubb and +6 has great value for a seemingly close matchup in the AFC North.
Texans 34 Colts 17
Best Bet: Texans -11 (-100), The Colts were shut out the first time these teams met all the way back in week 2 and I think the Texans similarly dominate despite Jonathan Taylor.
Vikings 30 Lions 28
Best Bet: Lions +7 (-100), the Lions pulled off the upset last time these teams met and I think its close at the least again. The Vikings may win but +7 feels more than possible, it feels likely.
Packers 31 Bears 24
Best Bet: Bears +9.5 (-100), A pretty solid spread here but the Bears will be much more motivated and I think Green Bay lets up a bit to let this cover if the Bears aren’t keeping it close initially.
Dolphins 33 Bills 30
Best Bet: Dolphins ML (+355), Miami are 10 point underdogs but despite Buffalo’s recent big wins, the model sees the Dolphins high powered rushing attack pulling off the upset.
Saints 27 Falcons 20
Best Bet: Falcons +11.5 (-100), A big spread as Arod says he wants to bait people but the model has the Falcons covering and potentially winning if the Atlanta offense gets going.
Patriots 27 Jets 24
Best Bet: Jets +7 (-100), The Patriots took a surprising loss and the Jets are on their tail I expect a close game and the Jets to at least cover.
Eagles 38 Giants 24
Best Bet: Eagles -6 (-100), A high value play with the biggest concern being the Giants beating the Eagles recently but the model says that was the fluke and the Eagles win big this time.
Titans 28 Jaguars 27
Best Bet: Titans ML (+110), the Titans find themselves on the outside of the playoffs but will want to finish strong against a team who will be fine taking a better pick. It should be close, though.
Broncos 41 Raiders 31
Best Bet: Broncos -8 (-100), the Broncos have been cooking with Trey Lance recently and we’ll likely see a lot of points and enough by Denver to cover.
Steelers 27 Ravens 21
Best Bet: Steelers ML (-245), Another great spread by the sportsbook it’s smarter to take the ML of the team you’re expecting to win, for me it’s the Steelers.
Cowboys 34 Commanders 23
Best Bet: Cowboys -6 (-100), One of the highest value plays of the week, the Cowboys even with a meaningless week 18 game are bound to take care of the Commanders.
Chiefs 35 Chargers 31
Best Bet: Chargers +6.5 (-100), No Herbert, no problem as the Chargers likely won’t stop the Chiefs often but they will score almost as much.
Rams 31 49ers 23
Best Bet: 49ers +10 (-100), Stetson Bennett is not the answer although this has the Rams winning, the 49ers high powered offense gives them a good chance to cover or even win.
Seahawks 27 Cardinals 23
Best Bet: Cardinals +7.5, With the Cardinals stout defense and the Seahawks playing in close games this feels like the highest chance to hit a bet.
