PITTSBURGH – The playoff race is heating up in the AFC, and things could not be tighter. With just a few weeks left in the regular season, every win, every tiebreaker, and every division matchup could be the difference between playing in January and packing for the offseason.
The standings tell the story, and it’s a wild one.
At the top of the conference, the Jacksonville Jaguars have already clinched the AFC South and the number one seed with a 13-1 record. Behind them, chaos reigns. From the second seed through the tenth, only two games separate contenders from pretenders.
The Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens are all locked at 8-5, while teams like the Colts, Raiders, Chargers, and Texans are nipping at their heels. This is as competitive as it gets, and the margin for error is razor thin.
The Top Dogs
The Jaguars have been the class of the conference all season long. Coach Keraun’s team has dominated both sides of the ball, riding elite quarterback play by Trevor Lawrence and an aggressive defense to a near-perfect record. With an 8-1 conference mark and a 7-1 road record, they’ve earned the right to rest easy for now.
Behind them sit Coach Dot’s Browns and Coach Fallen’s Broncos, both at 8-5. The Browns hold the number two seed for the moment thanks to their strong 7-2 conference record and a key head-to-head win over Pittsburgh earlier this year. They’ve been efficient, tough, and resilient, which is a tribute to classic AFC North football.
The Broncos, also 8-5, continue to be one of the most well-balanced teams in the league, boasting a 7-2 conference record and the kind of defensive consistency that travels well in December.
The North is a Gauntlet
The AFC North might be the most brutal division in football right now. Three teams in the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens all sit at 8-5, and all three are still very much alive for the division crown.
The Browns hold the current tiebreaker advantage due to their early-season win over Pittsburgh and a better divisional record than the Ravens. The Steelers, however, have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Baltimore, which puts them fifth overall in the standings, one spot ahead of their archrivals.
For Pittsburgh, the path is straightforward but anything but easy. They’ll face the Dolphins, Lions, Browns, and Ravens to close out the year. Every one of those matchups carries playoff implications. Coach DK LaFleur’s squad has clawed its way into contention after a 1-2 start, going 7-3 since taking over. The balance between Desmond Ridder’s efficient passing and Nate Carter’s breakout rookie season has made them one of the hottest teams in football.
The Ravens, meanwhile, sit right behind them with their own 8-5 record. Coach Mark’s group has been explosive on offense and opportunistic on defense, but consistency has been an issue. Their remaining schedule of the Bengals, Patriots, Browns, and Steelers could make or break their playoff hopes.
The Wild Card Warzone
Behind the AFC North trio, things get even messier. The Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders both sit at 7-6, tied for the seventh and eighth spots in the standings. The Colts and Greeny have the tiebreaker for now thanks to a head-to-head win earlier this year in week 5, but with matchups against the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans ahead, their margin for error is slim.
The Raiders have been up and down all year but remain dangerous. Coach Beast squad plays a physical brand of football that travels well, and with Ashton Jeanty and Dont’e Thornton heating up, they have a lot of potential. Their upcoming schedule includes the undefeated Eagles, Texans, Giants, and Chiefs.
The Chargers and Texans, both at 7-7, are still alive but on life support. Los Angeles recently fired their coach and hired on a new prospect in Coach Josh. There has been talk that Josh has a lot of potential, but we’ll see how they close out the season. The Texans and Coach Casper could certainly sneak in as well, despite an up down season after starting at 5-1. Suspensions and a lack of focus on the league have been their downfall, but they look to lock in down the stretch to make a playoff push. Still, both teams have the talent to play spoiler or sneak in if chaos strikes above them.
The Bubble Watch
Below .500, the path gets murky. The Jets and Coach ARod sit at 6-8, still mathematically alive, and if they win out including a huge game against their divisional foe in the Bills and Coach JP in week 18, that would be huge to grab the division, as they already beat them earlier in week 2 this year and would have the tiebreaker over them. Behind them, the Patriots and Dolphins are both 5-8, and while technically not eliminated, their postseason hopes are hanging by a thread and are looking to potentially win their division.
For teams like the Bengals and Coach DTown (4-9) and Titans and Coach Doc (4-10), the playoff dream is officially over. They’ll be playing for pride, development, and potentially the role of spoiler down the stretch.
And then there are the Chiefs with a shocking 0-14 record. It has been a nightmare season in Kansas City, and while their playoff hopes disappeared months ago, they’ll still have a chance to impact seeding as they face divisional opponents in the final stretch. Regardless, the Chiefs and new head Coach Santonio have been focused on growing and making games competitive.
What to Watch
As Week 15 approaches, the AFC is shaping up to deliver one of the most dramatic finishes in league history. Here are the matchups that could decide everything:
- Browns vs Bears (Week 15): Cleveland cannot afford a slip-up against an NFC opponent.
- Texans vs Raiders (Week 16): Both teams are fighting for wild card positioning. A must-win for both franchises.
- Raiders vs Chargers (Week 16): Loser could be eliminated entirely.
- Chargers vs Texans (Week 17): Loser of this matchup would make it tough to make it in or eliminate them entirely.
- Colts vs Jags (Week 17): Green and the Colts need to win this matchup to stay in the playoff race. They may be playing against Jags backups in this game, but we’ll see how Coach Keraun approaches resting his starters.
- Steelers vs Browns (Week 17): A possible division title on the line. The last meeting went Cleveland’s way, but Pittsburgh is playing their best football of the season.
- Ravens vs Steelers (Week 18): A rivalry game with likely playoff implications. It might come down to this.
- Texans vs Colts (Week 18): This could very well decide the 7th seed of the AFC. The playoffs may be starting a week early for these teams in this potential win-and-in game.
- Bills vs Jets (Week 18): With the Bills losing their week 2 matchup vs the Jets, this could potentially be a win-and-in game to win the division for both teams.
The Bottom Line
Right now, the AFC feels like a powder keg waiting to explode. The Jaguars have separated themselves, but from seeds two through nine, nothing is guaranteed. The Steelers, Browns, and Ravens are locked in a divisional cage match, while the Colts, Raiders, and Chargers are circling for wild card scraps.
For Coach DK LaFleur and the Steelers, the message remains the same as it has all season: control what you can control. With three of their final four games coming against AFC opponents and two against divisional foes, they’ll have every opportunity to claim their spot.
One thing is certain. The AFC playoffs are going to be a war. And when the dust settles, only the most battle-tested teams will be left standing.
– Forged In Steel Times
